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THE ROBOTAXI RACE

Waymo vs Tesla, driverless service only. Every number sourced.

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RACE TO 25 DRIVERLESS CITIES

Car position = cities with public, fully driverless rides. Bay Area not counted for Tesla (safety driver on board).

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Category standings below
DEATHS CAUSED
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Waymo vs Tesla, all time
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CATEGORY STANDINGS

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Full numbers, notes and sources are on the board below. Consumer Autopilot/FSD excluded.

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PREDICTOR LEADERBOARD

Season 1 · runs through Dec 31, 2026

THE FULL BOARD

Every number, with notes and sources. Updated November 9, 2026

DEATHS CAUSED

Fatalities attributed to the robotaxi while driving itself

0
Sources & details
Involved in fatal crashes: 3
No fatal crash has ever been attributed to Waymo's driving
Struck by human drivers in SF (Jan 2025) and Tempe (Sep 2025); in Dallas (Aug 7, 2026) an SUV threw a pedestrian into a Waymo's path — Texas' first fatal AV-involved collision. Not at fault in any of the three.
source: Reyes Law · May 2026 ↗source: NBC DFW · Aug 2026 ↗
0
Sources & details
Involved in fatal crashes: 0
No deaths in any Robotaxi-service crash since the June 2025 launch
Consumer Autopilot / FSD cars are a separate program and are not counted here
source: Electrek · NHTSA narratives ↗

INJURY CRASHES

Crashes with a reported injury, per NHTSA crash reports

117
of 1,429 reported crashes
Sources & details
Jul 2021 – Nov 2025 · injuries reported in SGO filings, per law-firm tally
1,429 SGO reports, Jul 2021 – Nov 17, 2025 (law-firm tally of NHTSA filings; raw data at NHTSA link). NHTSA counts involvement, not fault — most were caused by other drivers — and warns raw totals can include duplicates. Nov 6: NHTSA opened recall query RQ26006 into 2,895 Waymo vehicles to check whether its December 2025 school-bus software recall worked — Reuters reports most violations happened after Waymo said the fix was fully deployed (Austin ISD documented 19 violations, Atlanta schools 6).
source: NHTSA Standing General Order (raw data) ↗source: Tally: DAM Firm review · through Nov 17, 2025 ↗
2
of 36 reported crashes
Sources & details
Jul 2025 – Mar 2026 · 2 minor-injury crashes, 1 requiring hospitalization
36 unique Robotaxi incident reports on file with NHTSA's Standing General Order as of its September data release (up from 23 a month earlier), incl. two August crashes while remote operators were driving — five crash reports now involve a remote operator at the controls. A newly reported August filing shows a Cybercab with a safety monitor aboard drove into a water-filled pothole in an Austin parking lot at ~5 mph (no injuries, no passengers); the Austin American-Statesman counts 26 Austin Robotaxi crashes since the June 2025 launch. The 2 SGO injury crashes date from the earlier, monitor-era period; Tesla's new safety report, which covers only driverless miles, claims zero injuries. Most crashes were other drivers' fault. No matched per-mile rate can be computed.
source: Electrek · NHTSA SGO data · Oct 15, 2026 ↗source: Austin American-Statesman via Audacy · Oct 22, 2026 ↗

CRASHES PER MILLION MILES

NHTSA-reported crashes per million driverless miles — see each card for how the rates are matched

1.28
crashes per million miles
Sources & details
IIHS matched study: 1.28 police-reportable crashes per million miles vs 4.06 for human drivers in the same areas and years (~50M driverless miles, 2021–2024)
68% fewer police-reportable crashes and 81% fewer injury crashes than matched human drivers (IIHS, Jul 2026). Waymo's own safety dashboard, updated Sep 24, now covers 270M driverless miles through Jun 2026 and reports 82% fewer injury-causing crashes and 95% fewer serious-injury crashes than matched human benchmarks (~841 injury crashes avoided, by Waymo's own methodology). Our former “6.5” figure divided a Nov 2025 crash count by Mar 2026 mileage — mismatched cutoffs — and has been retired. Raw SGO totals count every contact, including not-at-fault, and can't be read as a matched rate.
source: IIHS · Jul 23, 2026 ↗source: Waymo Safety Impact · through Jun 2026 ↗
Not disclosed
mileage not published — no rate can be computed
Sources & details
Not calculable yet — Tesla's new Robotaxi Safety Report (Oct 21) self-reports ~3.1M driverless miles (Jan 22–Oct 18, safety-monitor miles excluded) with zero injuries or airbag deployments, but it publishes no count of non-injury collisions and NHTSA's crash file uses different cutoffs and includes monitor-era crashes, so no matched crashes-per-million-miles rate can be computed
Tesla's own benchmark says human drivers would have had ~9.1 injury collisions over the same miles; its methodology is not published and the data is not independently verified. Historical context only: an early-Austin estimate (Feb 2026) put the rate around 9–18 per million miles — 14 crashes ÷ ~0.8M estimated miles, most driven with safety monitors aboard — roughly 4× a human benchmark. That estimate covers a different window, fleet, and driving mode than Waymo's figures and is not comparable to them. Robotaxis must also report every minor contact while humans only generate police reports.
source: Electrek / Bloomberg · Feb 2026 ↗source: Not a Tesla App · Tesla Robotaxi Safety Report · Oct 21, 2026 ↗

CITIES IN SERVICE

Metros with public, fully driverless rides today

15
PhoenixSF Bay AreaLos AngelesSan DiegoDenverAtlantaAustinDallasHoustonSan AntonioMiamiOrlandoTampaNashvilleLas Vegas
Sources & details
Nov 4: co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana confirmed Waymo will end Uber exclusivity in Austin and Atlanta from January 2028 and offer rides in its own app there (TechCrunch) · Nov 5: winter-weather testing announced in Fairbanks, Alaska — closed-course evaluations with Ojai and Hyundai IONIQ vehicles (Fox Weather) · Nov 2: Denver police say there is no legal mechanism to ticket a driverless car; the city is exploring owner citations (Denver Gazette) · Oct 27: added nearly 250 sq mi of driverless coverage across Los Angeles, Nashville, Orlando, San Diego and the SF Bay Area · Oct 27: confirmed mapping in Northern Virginia (Arlington, Alexandria) — no launch plans shared · Oct 30: Toyota bZ4X partnership — testing in Japan next year; London launch pending permits · Oct 21: Las Vegas airport rides began · Oct 14: San Antonio, San Diego and Tampa opened to anyone with the Waymo app · Washington DC: Councilmember Allen's bill (200-vehicle cap per operator, commercial rollout not before 2028) still heads to a committee vote by Thanksgiving, full council in December · Denver still invite-based · International: London, Munich, Madrid (2027), Tokyo (2027 target), Singapore (2028), Toronto (2028)
source: Electrek · Oct 27, 2026 ↗
8
AustinDallasFort WorthHoustonSan AntonioMiamiOrlandoTampa
Sources & details
Nov 9: San Antonio launched at 5 a.m. — ~275 sq mi, Tesla's largest zone at launch, Model Y only (Not a Tesla App); TechCrunch notes Tesla did not say whether safety monitors ride along · Nov 2: Fort Worth launched fully unsupervised (no safety monitor in the car), ~143 sq mi, Model Y only — counted as its own market though it shares the DFW metro with Dallas · SF Bay Area not counted — rides there still require a human safety driver · Cybercab still Austin-only; Dallas Cybercab service slated for November · Oct 29: hours extended to 6 a.m.–2 a.m.; Tesla says 24/7 before year-end · Oct 26: Houston service area expanded ~10× to ~254 sq mi · Las Vegas, Jacksonville and Phoenix remain “coming soon” (no dates) · Unsupervised FSD for customer cars pushed to ~Q2 2027 · Oct 30: Tesla answered NHTSA's sworn Cybercab certification order on deadline but claimed the entire file as confidential; NHTSA has not ruled on the request (Electrek, Nov 5) · NHTSA defect-petition file DP26010 (opened Oct 9) on alleged school-zone speeding covers ~1,000 vehicles; no crashes reported · Las Vegas NTA permit for up to 5,000 vehicles granted Aug 20; no service start yet
source: TechCrunch · Nov 9, 2026 ↗

CARS ON THE ROAD

Driverless vehicles currently deployed

4,000+
Sources & details
~4,000 vehicles nationwide handling 500,000 paid rides a week (TechCrunch fleet analysis, Sep 24) · Semafor reports (Oct 19) Waymo aims for ~8,000 vehicles by end of 2026 and 20,000 by end of 2027; Waymo did not comment · Texas fleet: 1,259 Waymo AVs registered statewide on our latest Nov 4 pull, unchanged from Nov 2 (TxDMV registrations via robotaxireport.com daily sync) · on track to import ~5,100 Ojai units by year-end for Texas, Florida and Las Vegas · Oct 30: Toyota will build Waymo-equipped 2027 bZ4X vehicles for Japan and other right-hand-drive markets such as the UK
source: TechCrunch · Sep 24, 2026 ↗
~400+
Sources & details
Community tracking (Robotaxi Tracker): 397 driverless vehicles in Austin — more than half Cybercabs — and 34 unsupervised Model Ys in Houston (via Electrek, Oct 26); 24 in Fort Worth and 5 in Miami (via TechCrunch, Nov 9); Dallas and other Florida counts are older (Oct 11) · TechCrunch (Nov 9) puts Tesla's registered Austin fleet at more than 400 autonomous vehicles · Tesla's own claim: “300+ Cybercabs serving Austin” (Oct 10) · Texas registrations: 1,244 (573 Cybercab + 671 Model Y) on our latest Nov 4 pull, unchanged from Nov 2 — registered ≠ deployed (TxDMV registrations via robotaxireport.com daily sync) · NHTSA estimates ~1,000 Model Y + Cybercab Robotaxis in its school-zone petition file · Tesla still discloses no total fleet number
source: Electrek / Robotaxi Tracker · Oct 26, 2026 ↗

HUMAN DRIVERS — THE BENCHMARK

Not a robotaxi. This is the everyday risk baseline: average US human driving.

~1.9
crashes per million miles
Sources & details
≈6 million police-reported crashes a year ÷ ~3.2 trillion miles driven
Most minor human crashes never get a police report, so the true rate is several times higher — robotaxis, by contrast, must report every incident to NHTSA
source: NHTSA crash overview ↗
107
deaths on US roads every day
Sources & details
≈39,000 deaths in 2024 — a rate of 1.2 per 100 million miles driven
Robotaxi deaths caused to date, both companies combined: 0
source: NHTSA · 2024 estimate ↗

NHTSA crash reports record involvement, not fault — many crashes were caused by human drivers hitting a robotaxi. Consumer Tesla Autopilot/FSD cars are a separate program and are not counted. How every number is defined → · Get the weekly report by email →

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