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THE ROBOTAXI RACE

Waymo vs Tesla, driverless service only. Every number sourced.

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RACE TO 25 DRIVERLESS CITIES

Car position = cities with public, fully driverless rides. Bay Area not counted for Tesla (safety driver on board).

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Category standings below
DEATHS CAUSED
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Waymo vs Tesla, all time
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CATEGORY STANDINGS

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Full numbers, notes and sources are on the board below. Consumer Autopilot/FSD excluded.

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PREDICTOR LEADERBOARD

Season 1 · runs through Dec 31, 2026

THE FULL BOARD

Every number, with notes and sources. Updated October 12, 2026

DEATHS CAUSED

Fatalities attributed to the robotaxi while driving itself

0
Sources & details
Involved in fatal crashes: 3
No fatal crash has ever been attributed to Waymo's driving
Struck by human drivers in SF (Jan 2025) and Tempe (Sep 2025); in Dallas (Aug 7, 2026) an SUV threw a pedestrian into a Waymo's path — Texas' first fatal AV-involved collision. Not at fault in any of the three.
source: Reyes Law · May 2026 ↗source: NBC DFW · Aug 2026 ↗
0
Sources & details
Involved in fatal crashes: 0
No deaths in any Robotaxi-service crash since the June 2025 launch
Consumer Autopilot / FSD cars are a separate program and are not counted here
source: Electrek · NHTSA narratives ↗

INJURY CRASHES

Crashes with a reported injury, per NHTSA crash reports

117
of 1,429 reported crashes
Sources & details
Jul 2021 – Nov 2025 · injuries reported in SGO filings, per law-firm tally
1,429 SGO reports, Jul 2021 – Nov 17, 2025 (law-firm tally of NHTSA filings; raw data at NHTSA link). NHTSA counts involvement, not fault — most were caused by other drivers — and warns raw totals can include duplicates.
source: NHTSA Standing General Order (raw data) ↗source: Tally: DAM Firm review · through Nov 17, 2025 ↗
2
of 23 reported crashes
Sources & details
Jul 2025 – Mar 2026 · 2 minor-injury crashes, 1 requiring hospitalization
23 unique SGO incident reports from launch (Jun 2025) through mid-Aug 2026 filings, incl. a bollard/chain-fence strike in Austin. Most were other drivers' fault (rear-endings while stopped); at least 2 were caused by Tesla's remote operators. Mileage undisclosed, so no per-mile rate can be computed.
source: Austin American-Statesman via GovTech · Sep 16, 2026 ↗source: Electrek · NHTSA SGO filings · Jul 20, 2026 ↗

CRASHES PER MILLION MILES

NHTSA-reported crashes per million driverless miles — see each card for how the rates are matched

1.28
crashes per million miles
Sources & details
IIHS matched study: 1.28 police-reportable crashes per million miles vs 4.06 for human drivers in the same areas and years (~50M driverless miles, 2021–2024)
68% fewer police-reportable crashes and 81% fewer injury crashes than matched human drivers (IIHS, Jul 2026). Waymo's own safety dashboard, updated Sep 24, now covers 270M driverless miles through Jun 2026 and reports 82% fewer injury-causing crashes and 95% fewer serious-injury crashes than matched human benchmarks (~841 injury crashes avoided, by Waymo's own methodology). Our former “6.5” figure divided a Nov 2025 crash count by Mar 2026 mileage — mismatched cutoffs — and has been retired. Raw SGO totals count every contact, including not-at-fault, and can't be read as a matched rate.
source: IIHS · Jul 23, 2026 ↗source: Waymo Safety Impact · through Jun 2026 ↗
Not disclosed
mileage not published — no rate can be computed
Sources & details
Not calculable from public data — Tesla claimed 1M cumulative unsupervised miles on Sep 3 but does not break out crashes by driving mode or publish audited mileage
Historical context only: an early-Austin estimate (Feb 2026) put the rate around 9–18 per million miles — 14 crashes ÷ ~0.8M estimated miles, most driven with safety monitors aboard — roughly 4× a human benchmark. That estimate covers a different window, fleet, and driving mode than Waymo's figures and is not comparable to them. Robotaxis must also report every minor contact while humans only generate police reports.
source: Electrek / Bloomberg · Feb 2026 ↗source: Electrek · Sep 3, 2026 ↗

CITIES IN SERVICE

Metros with public, fully driverless rides today

15
PhoenixSF Bay AreaLos AngelesSan DiegoDenverAtlantaAustinDallasHoustonSan AntonioMiamiOrlandoTampaNashvilleLas Vegas
Sources & details
Closed its first-ever debt financing Oct 8: a $5B loan led by PIMCO, Blackstone and Sixth Street to fund fleet and market expansion · Las Vegas opened to invited public riders Sep 14 — Waymo's 15th market · San Antonio service resumed Sep 17 after a 5-month flood-safety pause · Denver, San Diego and Tampa still ramping since Sep 1 · Washington DC: union drivers rallied Oct 6 against the council bill that would allow driverless rides; a vote is expected before the end of 2026 · 80,000 sq ft Waymo/Lyft (Flexdrive) depot near Nashville airport opened Oct 12 to support “hundreds” of vehicles · SFMTA geofenced the waterfront and Presidio for Fleet Week weekend · International next: London, Munich, Tokyo (2027 target), Singapore (2028)
source: TechCrunch · Sep 14, 2026 ↗
6
AustinDallasHoustonMiamiOrlandoTampa
Sources & details
SF Bay Area not counted — rides there still require a human safety driver · Dallas named the next Cybercab city: Tesla AI chief Ashok Elluswamy posted “Dallas soon” on Oct 10, the first time Tesla has named its next Cybercab market · Austin hours run to 11 p.m.; Tesla targets 24/7 “as early as this month” pending FSD v15 · NHTSA's defect office opened file DP26010 on Oct 9 over a petition claiming Robotaxis speed through active school zones (~1,000 Model Y + Cybercab vehicles; no crashes reported) — the third federal action on the driverless fleet in about five weeks · Tesla's sworn answers to NHTSA's Cybercab certification audit are due Oct 30 · Las Vegas NTA permit for up to 5,000 vehicles granted Aug 20; no service start yet · Phoenix staging underway · Cybercab makes its European debut at the Paris Motor Show, opening Oct 12
source: Not a Tesla App · Jul 21, 2026 ↗

CARS ON THE ROAD

Driverless vehicles currently deployed

4,000+
Sources & details
~4,000 vehicles nationwide handling 500,000 paid rides a week (TechCrunch fleet analysis, Sep 24) · Texas fleet keeps climbing — 1,175 Waymo AVs registered statewide as of Oct 8, up ~21 this week, with Ojai minivans roughly a third of it (TxDMV registrations via robotaxireport.com daily sync) · on track to import 5,100 Ojai units by year-end for Texas, Florida and Las Vegas
source: TechCrunch · Sep 24, 2026 ↗
~300
Sources & details
Tesla's first official fleet count: “scaled to 300+ Cybercabs serving Austin — an 8x increase in 30 days” (Robotaxi account on X, Oct 10) · Community tracking (RobotaxiTracker, Oct 10) counts 275 unsupervised vehicles in Austin, 105 of them Cybercabs — well below Tesla's figure · Texas registry added 150 Cybercabs on Oct 8, lifting registrations from 169 to 319 Cybercabs alongside 420 Model Ys (~739 statewide, per Teslarati); our own TxDMV daily sync still showed 589 (420 Model Y + 169 Cybercab) on its Oct 8 pull — registered ≠ deployed (TxDMV registrations via robotaxireport.com daily sync) · Tesla discloses no total fleet number
source: Teslarati / Tesla on X · Oct 11, 2026 ↗

HUMAN DRIVERS — THE BENCHMARK

Not a robotaxi. This is the everyday risk baseline: average US human driving.

~1.9
crashes per million miles
Sources & details
≈6 million police-reported crashes a year ÷ ~3.2 trillion miles driven
Most minor human crashes never get a police report, so the true rate is several times higher — robotaxis, by contrast, must report every incident to NHTSA
source: NHTSA crash overview ↗
107
deaths on US roads every day
Sources & details
≈39,000 deaths in 2024 — a rate of 1.2 per 100 million miles driven
Robotaxi deaths caused to date, both companies combined: 0
source: NHTSA · 2024 estimate ↗

NHTSA crash reports record involvement, not fault — many crashes were caused by human drivers hitting a robotaxi. Consumer Tesla Autopilot/FSD cars are a separate program and are not counted. How every number is defined → · Get the weekly report by email →

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